Africa is expected to grow faster than the rest of the world in passenger demand next year, yet it will remain the least profitable region globally, according to the International Air Transport Association’s (Iata) 2026 industry outlook released at the Africa media roundtable.
Iata projects global air-travel growth at 4.9% in 2026, while Africa will see 6.0%. Cargo demand is set to rise 2.6% globally, with Africa slightly behind at 2%.
Despite stronger demand, African carriers are forecast to generate just $200m in combined net profit next year — a margin of 1.3%, the lowest in the world. This translates to $1.3 profit per passenger, versus the global average of $7.9.
“Demand is rising quickly, but profitability is not keeping pace,” said Kamil Al-Awadhi, IATA Regional Vice President for Africa and the Middle East. “Airlines are capturing only a fraction of aviation’s economic value.”
High costs and structural challenges weigh on airlines
IATA notes that African airlines continue to operate under some of the world’s most difficult conditions, with structural barriers pushing operational costs far above the global norm.
Key obstacles include:
• Low GDP per capita, making demand highly price-sensitive.
• Fuel prices 17% higher than the global average.
• Taxes and airport charges 12–15% higher.
• Air navigation charges 10% higher.
• Maintenance, insurance and capital costs 6–10% higher.
• Poor connectivity, with only 19% of intra-Africa routes offering direct flights.
The continent also leads the world in blocked airline funds. Of the $1.2bn trapped globally, Africa accounts for 79%—about $954 million, with Algeria now the biggest contributor.
Long-term potential remains strong
Despite the immediate challenges, Africa’s aviation market holds major long-term promise. Over the next 20 years, the industry is expected to grow 4.1% annually, reaching 411 million passengers by 2044 — the third-fastest growth rate worldwide.
Progress in visa openness is also supporting better mobility:
• Five countries now offer visa-free access to all African nationals.
• 28% of intra-African travel scenarios are visa-free (up from 20% in 2016).
• 26 countries offer e-visas, up from 17 in 2016.
These changes strengthen regional trade, tourism, and integration.
Unlocking aviation’s full potential requires policy reform
For Africa’s aviation sector to transform from high-growth but low-profit, IATA is urging governments to prioritise four key actions:
1. Treat aviation as a strategic economic enabler, not a revenue source.
2. Invest in efficient, scalable infrastructure without unsustainable cost burdens.
3. Advance market liberalisation through the Yamoussoukro Decision and SAATM.
4. Improve affordability and strengthen connectivity to unlock wider economic benefits.
“Africa’s aviation potential is immense,” Al-Awadhi said. “But turning potential into performance requires action. With the right policies, aviation can become a powerful driver of economic transformation across the continent.”
