South Africa's Black Friday has evolved into a key retail marathon, where shoppers eagerly seek bargains on essentials and festive gifts across a long weekend of deals. While the spike in revenue is celebrated, the true measure of success, and profitability, rests squarely on the resilience of the supply chain.
Lebo Letsoalo, CEO and Founder, Sincpoint. Image supplied
For supply chain leaders, Black Friday 2025 demands more than just aggressive discounting; it requires operational mastery that encompasses both forward logistics (getting products out) and the often-neglected, profit-eroding challenge of reverse logistics (handling returns). The retailers who will truly win are those who adopt integrated planning, leverage technology, and start preparing now.
Here are the essential logistics strategies for leaders aiming for high performance this Black Friday:
The strategy of early engagement and demand foresight
A successful Black Friday hinges on preparation that begins long before November. Given that consumers and brands are stretching the shopping season, planning for a longer sales period is critical, including communicating offers early and potentially extending them.
Inventory intelligence is crucial to avoid stockouts and lost sales. Retailers must leverage data, such as sales reports from previous Black Friday and Cyber Monday periods, to identify high-demand products (money makers) and low-demand products (dead stock) for targeted promotion.
During peak times, suppliers often operate above capacity, requiring significant lead time. Proactively addressing logistical pitfalls means securing carrier capacity early and ensuring diversified shipping options to mitigate the risk of delayed deliveries due to carrier capacity crunches.
Basic operational steps must be locked down well in advance. This includes accurately counting stock by the Wednesday before the event, pulling promotional units to prevent oversells, and pre-packing fast movers. Furthermore, a solid contingency plan must be in place to address worst-case scenarios like site crashes or shipping delays.
Operational mastery in forward fulfillment
When sales volumes surge in a short period, fulfillment efficiency determines customer satisfaction and margin protection. Speed is crucial on Black Friday.
To optimise fulfillment, streamline workflows by organising the fulfillment area, ensuring adequate supplies, and positioning popular products for easy access. Plan for increased orders by recruiting additional staff and maintaining clear communication with fulfillment and delivery teams to avoid errors and save time.
Implement a strategy for prioritised processing, grouping orders based on customer priority, shipping requirements, or product type for efficient picking and packing. Automation solutions, like Flow, can further streamline tasks across the store and apps.
Finally, reduce checkout friction by offering smooth and fast payment options, especially through short, mobile-first flows. Services such as Shop Pay, Apple Pay, or Google Pay accelerate the process by auto filling information, significantly boosting mobile conversions.
The critical battlefield: Mastering reverse logistics
The sales surge in South Africa fuels a returns wave that ripples into December and January. Managing returns is not an afterthought; it is now a core part of supply chain planning, especially since inefficient handling can create warehouse congestion, strain transport, and rapidly erode profit margins.
Retailers must anticipate the volume of returned goods, as during peak periods, these can occupy up to 20% of warehouse capacity in categories like apparel, footwear, and electronics accessories. There are significant financial implications, as every returned item incurs costs for inspection, handling, and often, retailer-absorbed outbound collection shipping.
Forward-thinking retailers are turning to innovation and technology for prevention and processing. This includes using predictive analytics and AI to forecast return volumes, enabling better allocation of warehouse space, labour, and transport.
This aligns with the broader logistics trend of AI-driven supply chains for improved demand forecasting and real-time inventory management. Additionally, retailers can reduce mis-purchases by implementing enhanced sizing guides, fit reviews, and AI-driven recommendations at checkout.
Consumers now expect hassle-free returns as a standard part of the purchase experience. A poor returns policy can erode trust faster than a promotion can build it, so it's crucial to ensure your return policy is clear, fair, and well-communicated across the site.
Optimising the network is also key, especially in South Africa where infrastructure challenges like slow ports and high-crime last-mile zones compound complexity. Logistics partnerships are crucial, and consolidated pickup and drop-off networks (lockers, retail partner counters) allow returns to be collected more efficiently and in bulk, reducing transport costs and failed collections.
Finally, exploring re-commerce opportunities through refurbishment and resale channels can help monetise gently used returned goods and protect the bottom line.
The retailers who will thrive in Black Friday 2025 are those who treat their supply chain not merely as a cost center, but as a competitive advantage. By embracing early planning, prioritising operational efficiency, and mastering the complexity of reverse logistics, businesses can ensure that those spectacular sales turn into sustainable profit and lasting customer relationships.
