Global air cargo demand reached a record high in 2025, driven largely by sustained e-commerce growth and shifting global trade patterns, according to full-year data released by the International Air Transport Association (Iata).
Measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTKs), full-year air cargo demand rose 3.4% year-on-year, with international operations growing faster at 4.2%. Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTKs), increased 3.7%, slightly outpacing demand growth.
December 2025 capped off the year with continued momentum. Global demand was 4.3% higher thanin December 2024, while capacity rose 4.5% over the same period. International cargo demand increased 5.5% year-on-year in December.
Despite the strong volumes, air cargo yields declined 1.5% year-on-year in 2025. IATA noted this was the smallest annual decline in three years, reflecting a return to more balanced supply and demand conditions. Even so, yields remain 37.2% above pre-pandemic (2019) levels.
E-commerce and trade shifts drive volumes
According to Willie Walsh, Iata’s director general, air cargo proved resilient despite geopolitical and trade pressures.
“Air cargo delivered a strong performance in 2025, with demand up 3.4% year-on-year,” said Walsh. “Global e-commerce strength drove volumes, even as trading relationships with the US faced rising tariffs, the removal of de minimis tariff exemptions, and continuing policy uncertainty.”
Walsh added that carriers adapted rapidly, supporting global supply chains as businesses front-loaded shipments ahead of tariff changes and redirected flows toward Asia–Europe and intra-Asia trade, while Asia–North America volumes stagnated.
Looking ahead, IATA expects air cargo demand growth to moderate to 2.4% in 2026, aligning with historical trends. “Whatever trading patterns emerge, reliance on air cargo to keep global supply chains running will remain,” Walsh said.
Operating environment shows mixed signals
Iata highlighted several factors shaping the air cargo landscape:
• Global trade in goods grew 2.5% in 2024 and accelerated to 4.4% year-to-date (January–November) in 2025.
• Jet fuel prices declined 9.1% on average in 2025 compared to 2024, although higher refinery margins limited the benefit for airlines.
• Manufacturing sentiment improved in December to 50.9, while new export orders remained below expansion territory at 49.1, reflecting ongoing caution amid tariff uncertainty.
Regional performance: Africa and Asia-Pacific lead growth
Regional results showed uneven performance across markets:
• Asia-Pacific airlines recorded the strongest growth, with demand up 8.4% in 2025.
• African airlines saw demand rise 6.0% year-on-year, with December growth of 10.1%, the highest of any region.
• European carriers posted 2.9% growth for the year.
• Middle Eastern carriers recorded marginal growth of 0.3%, despite a significant capacity increase.
• Latin American and Caribbean airlines saw demand grow 2.3%, though December volumes declined.
• North America was the only region to record a full-year decline, with demand down 1.3%.
Trade lanes shift away from Asia–North America
Trade lane data confirmed a structural shift in global air cargo flows during 2025. Demand on the Europe–Asia route grew 10.3%, while within-Asia trade rose 10.0%. By contrast, Asia–North America demand declined 0.8%, losing market share as tariff pressures reshaped supply chains.
Iata said these changes underline the sector’s growing reliance on flexible networks and responsive capacity deployment as trade dynamics continue to evolve.
