The average home-loan applicant’s monthly gross income in Tshwane has increased by 15.9% year-on-year to R78,713 in H1 ‘25. driving Tshwane's strong housing performance.
This is according to Rhys Dyer, chief executive officer of the ooba Group.
“As the country’s second-highest earning property buyers, Tshwane trails behind the Western Cape by just R4,165 per month (at R78,713),” Dyer says. "In contrast, Johannesburg recorded a more modest yet meaningful rise in buyer’s incomes at 4.1%, bringing the average to R67,736."
Gauteng’s steady rebound in prices paid by homebuyers continues, with Tshwane leading the way as the only major metro in the country to record double-digit growth in the average value of properties purchased by both first and second-time homebuyers, at 10.1% and 14.7%, respectively, for the first half of the year (H1 ‘25).
After a prolonged period of slow growth, Johannesburg has also made a comeback, recording a 5% year-on-year rise in average value of prices purchased over the same period, and narrowing the regional price gap with Tshwane.
Stats SA’s latest data confirms this trend, highlighting renewed momentum across Gauteng’s three major metros, which together account for 47.4% of the national residential sales value. Furthermore, it cites Gauteng’s growing population as a key driver of demand, with the province’s population increasing by 6 million people from 2002 to 2025, accounting for the lion’s share of the country’s population (at 25.4%) as per its mid-year population estimate.
The banks have also helped bolster growth in Gauteng by offering further discounts in the prime lending rate.
“In H1 ‘25, Tshwane’s pricing improved by 12 basis points (bp) compared to year earlier levels, averaging -0.62% below prime during the first half of the year. Johannesburg saw a 6 bp improvement over the same period, averaging -0.59% below prime in H1 ‘25,” adds Dyer.
Gauteng South & East Region's affordability
Looking to Gauteng South & East, Dyer notes that this region’s negative house price inflation (HPI) of -3.3% in H1 ‘25 has paved the way for greater affordability and accessibility, with first-time homebuyers accounting for more than half of all the homebuyers in the region (at 52.5%). The region is also home to the youngest average homebuyer nationally – aged 38.8.
“Our data clearly shows that the barriers to entry have been lowered in this region,” he says. “Homebuyers remain eager to get a foot on the property ladder in a market that’s more accessible and affordable.”
Still more progress to be made
Tshwane’s first-time homebuyer HPI trumped all regions, recording a 14.7% year-on-year increase in the prices of properties purchased in the first half of 2025. However, it still has a way to go in attracting first-time homebuyers with just 38.4% of all applicants applying to purchase a property for the first time.
“Tshwane trails behind Gauteng South & East (52.5%) and Johannesburg (46.2%) for first-time homebuyers - metros offering strong entry-level demand driven by affordability,” says Dyer, pointing to an average first-time homebuyer purchase price of R1.16m in Johannesburg and R985,000 in Gauteng South & East versus R1.36m in Tshwane.
Gauteng: new building completed
After trailing the Western Cape in the years following the pandemic, Gauteng overtook its coastal counterpart in the number of buildings completed during 2024 - a surprising twist given that the Western Cape continues to lead in terms of building plans passed - a key indicator of future building activity.
Despite Ekurhuleni taking the lead in recent years, Tshwane dominated construction activity from 2012 to 2017, while Johannesburg recorded the lowest level of completions in 15-years and continues to lag behind the region’s two other metro housing markets in terms of new plans passed.
“Except for the pandemic period, planned building activity – as measured by the number of residential building plans passed – has remained far more buoyant in Tshwane and Ekurhuleni than in Johannesburg.”
Increased investor appetite
A growing number of savvy investors have their sights set on Tshwane, as Dyer explains, “In H1 ‘25, 11.2% of applications received from home-loan applicants in Tshwane were for buy-to-let properties – a 1.37 percentage point (pp) increase compared to the first half of 2024.”
He also highlights an increase in investment demand in Gauteng South & East, with investment applications rising by 1.6 pp to 6.3% in H1 ‘25. “In contrast, investment demand in Johannesburg declined by 1.25 pp to 3.4% during the first half of the year.”
Looking ahead, Dyer says, “The latest data is encouraging to see and points to a promising future for Gauteng. While challenges remain, the overall trajectory suggests that Gauteng is gradually recovering its place in the South African residential property landscape.”
