FAO: April food prices climb as cereals and meat costs rise

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The cereal price index increased by 1.2% from March. Global wheat prices edged up slightly, supported by tightening exportable supplies in the Russian Federation, while the FAO All Rice Price Index rose on stronger demand for fragrant varieties.

International maize prices rose due to seasonally tighter stock levels in the United States of America. Currency fluctuations influenced price movements in world markets, while tariff policy adjustments raised market uncertainty.

The meat price index was up 3.2% in April compared to March, with quotations rising across all meat categories, led by those for pig meat. Bovine meat prices also firmed, particularly in Australia and Brazil, amid steady global import demand and limited export availabilities.

The dairy price index increased by 2.4% in April from the previous month to stand as much as 22.9% higher than a year earlier. The rise was led by international butter prices, which hit a new all-time high due to declining inventories in Europe.

By contrast, the vegetable oil price indexdeclined by 2.3%, though it remained 20.7% higher than its year-ago level. Palm oil prices fell markedly due to seasonally higher outputs in major Southeast Asian producing countries, while global soy and rapeseed oil prices rose on the back of strong global import demand. Sunflower oil prices remained largely stable.

The sugar price index also dropped by 3.5% from March, largely due to concerns over the uncertain global economic outlook and its potential impact on the demand from the beverage and food processing sectors, which together account for the bulk of global sugar consumption.

Cereal supply and demand in the year ahead

FAO also released a new Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, with revised estimates for 2024 and fresh insights on cropping conditions and prospects for 2025.

FAO’s latest forecast for 2025 wheat production is pegged at 795 million tonnes, on par with the previous year.

Prospects point to a record output in Asia, buoyed by India and Pakistan, improved conditions in southern Europe and North Africa, along with stable production in Canada and the Russian Federation. However, rainfall deficits in northern Europe and the Near East and drought concerns in the United States of America are weighing on the overall prospects.

Harvesting of the 2025 coarse grain crops is beginning in the southern hemisphere, with maize output expected to increase in Brazil and South Africa. In the northern hemisphere, early expectations point to a 5% expansion in coarse-grain plantings in the United States of America.

Meanwhile, FAO has slightly revised downward its estimate for global cereal production in 2024 to 4,848 million tonnes, even as global rice output in 2024/25 will likely expand by 1.5 % to reach a record high of 543.6 million tonnes.

FAO’s new forecast for world cereal utilisation in 2024/25 stands at 2,870 million tonnes, a 1.0% increase over the 2023/24 level, driven by expectations of higher feed use of maize in China and the Russian Federation, along with increased rice consumption in various African countries.

World cereal stocks are now predicted to decline by 1.9% to 868.2 million tonnes by the close of the 2025 season, driving down FAO’s forecast for the world cereal stocks-to-use ratio in 2024/25 to 29.9% – still considered to be in a comfortable buffer zone.

FAO has slightly reduced its forecast for world cereal trade in 2024/25 to 478.6 million tonnes, which would mark a 6.8% contraction from 2023/24 and the lowest level since 2019/20.

Global trade in coarse grains is forecast to contract even faster, due largely to lower demand from China and smaller exportable maize supplies in Brazil. International trade in rice is now seen increasing by 1.2% to a new record high of 60.4 million tonnes.

FAO also published the latest edition of its Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor. Alongside regular market insights, the report includes a feature article examining fertiliser markets and global trade, highlighting the impact of recent geopolitical tensions and growing uncertainty in the trade policy environment.