ATTA report: Africa dominates global aviation growth with 18.6% surge
Africa’s aviation sector is experiencing record expansion in 2026, with international seat capacity up 18.6% year-on-year, according to the African Travel & Tourism Association (ATTA).
Image source: Gallo/Getty
The findings are contained in ATTA's new Africa in the Air White Paper, launched at ITB Berlin, drawing on data from aviation analysts OAG alongside figures from the International Air Transport Association (Iata) and UN Tourism.
In the first 10 months of 2026, 182.4 million departure seats have been scheduled across Africa — a 13.7% increase compared to 2025. International capacity is driving the surge, rising to 129.5 million seats (+18.6%), while domestic capacity has grown by 3.3%.
Five markets driving expansion
Five key aviation markets are powering growth:
• Egypt – 30.9 million seats (+12.6%)
• South Africa – 26.8 million seats (+19.6%)
• Morocco – 22.5 million seats (+21.8%)
• Ethiopia – 17 million seats (+31.2%)
• Kenya – 10.2 million seats (+22.3%)
Eastern Africa is currently the fastest-growing sub-region, with seat capacity up 24.3%, outperforming North and Southern Africa.
The aviation expansion builds on Africa’s position as the world’s fastest-growing tourism region in 2025, when international arrivals grew 10%, double the global average.
Geopolitics and emerging hub opportunities
The White Paper acknowledges the geopolitical crisis in the Gulf region and its potential implications for airspace disruption, oil prices, insurance and security costs.
However, ATTA believes Africa’s developing hubs, including Addis Ababa, Nairobi and Johannesburg, as well as West African hubs such as Casablanca, could become increasingly strategic by offering alternative routes and resilience.
Sven Carlson Aviation managing director Carl Denton noted that while many major airlines have already hedged fuel costs, limiting short-term risk exposure, airlines without hedging may face pressure if oil prices remain volatile.
He also suggested that renewed instability in the Middle East could shift hub dynamics.
Denton believes Dubai may face greater impact than in previous regional crises following recent unrest, potentially benefiting Istanbul Airport and Ethiopia as alternative routing options.
“Aircraft are going to have to fly down to the south," Denton said, noting that expanded no-fly zones could make hubs such as Addis Ababa more attractive for east–west traffic if disruptions persist.
He added that while the impact may be short-term, prolonged instability could reshape longer-term aviation routing strategies.
Europe leads, Americas present growth potential
Western Europe remains Africa’s largest source market, with 44.2 million seats scheduled in 2026.
North Africa continues to benefit from strong low-cost carrier penetration and liberalised air service agreements. Morocco’s open skies agreement with the EU has supported rapid expansion, while Egypt continues to attract substantial European low-cost carrier traffic. South Africa’s counter-seasonal appeal also sustains long-haul European capacity.
The Middle East ranks as Africa’s second-largest external market with 21.2 million seats scheduled.
However, ATTA identifies North and South America as significant untapped growth markets. Currently, 1.7 million seats are scheduled from North America and 319,000 from South America in 2026, figures the association believes could expand through targeted route development and strategic collaboration.
Infrastructure reshaping connectivity
The White Paper highlights a decade of airport infrastructure investment across the continent.
Bishoftu International Airport in Ethiopia, a $12.5bn development outside Addis Ababa, is set to open in 2030 with initial capacity for 60 million passengers, expanding to 110 million. The project is partly funded by Ethiopian Airlines in a major public-private partnership model.
Agostinho Neto International Airport in Angola, which opened for international operations in 2025, has a capacity for 15 million passengers annually and strengthens Angola’s hub ambitions.
Upgrades across Morocco, Rwanda and South Africa further signal continent-wide investment in modernisation and capacity expansion.
Structural challenges remain
Despite strong growth, the White Paper stresses that structural barriers persist, including high taxation, infrastructure bottlenecks in some markets, limited progress on pan-African open skies implementation and complex visa regimes.
ATTA CEO Kgomotso Ramothea said coordinated action between governments, airlines and tourism stakeholders is essential to sustain momentum.
"Investment in aviation, visa facilitation and route development must go hand in hand with tourism marketing to sustain long-term growth," Ramothea said.
Responding to Middle East instability, Ramothea added that developing self-sufficient African aviation hubs is critical in an uncertain global environment.
"In an uncertain world, we cannot rely on other regions to have such influence on our aviation sector. Africa’s developing aviation hubs in Addis Ababa, Nairobi and Johannesburg are already providing significant network resilience and useful alternatives for airlines looking to re-route."
Business, sport and multi-destination growth
The report also highlights:
• Expanding business and MICE potential
• Major sporting events between 2026–2027
• Growing demand for twin- and multi-centre itineraries linking destinations such as Cape Town, Botswana, Victoria Falls and Johannesburg
• Intra-African route development opportunities identified at AviaDev Africa
A defining moment
ATTA argues that aviation will be decisive in determining whether Africa can sustain its tourism growth trajectory.
"If investment in aviation continues alongside progressive visa policies and collaborative marketing, Africa can remain the fastest-growing tourism region well into the future," Ramothea said.
"This is not just about capacity growth — it is about long-term connectivity, competitiveness and shared prosperity."