Some users have queried whether it is this universe change and not real changes in the TV market, which is responsible for the declines seen lately in the viewing levels for terrestrial TV.
According to SAARF's senior technical support executive, Claire Welch, the answer is a resounding “No. It is not the new universe which has caused the decline in terrestrial channel viewing, but rather the changing behaviour of South Africa's TV viewers, which AMPS does not influence but merely reflects,” she says.
The figures show that viewing behaviour is changing radically, specifically with regards to pay TV.
“There is a clear shift towards DStv, whose adult universe rose from 3,392-million to 4,522-million,” says Welch. “If you look at TV viewing in total, the audience is quite stable, as are ARs. Due to the huge move to DStv however, there is an equal shift away from terrestrial TV. As a whole, terrestrial TV is now competing head-to-head with satellite.”
AMPS shows that DStv is growing rapidly, a trend, which is supported by the pay station's own audited subscriber figures. Non-pay TV is experiencing a loss of its higher LSM audiences, as upper LSM people move to pay TV. For example, AMPS 2008A shows that non-pay TV lost over 602 000 adult viewers in LSM 7-10, while pay TV gained over 934 000 adult viewers. Terrestrial TV's adult LSM 7 audience is down 9%, LSM 8 is down 14%, LSM 9 is down 8%, and LSM 10 down by 12%.
DStv is no longer the exclusive preserve of the upper classes. More and more lower-LSM households are coming on board, thanks to its offering of more affordable packages. Its LSM 1-6 adult audience has grown by 105%, or almost 195 000 viewers. The percentage of pay TV adult viewers in LSM 5 has risen by 212%, with LSM 6 growing by 89%.
Terrestrial TV's greatest loss by region was in Gauteng, where it lost just over 297 000 adult viewers. DStv on the other hand, gained over 422 000 adult viewers in this province. In terms of household language, English-speaking adults added almost 185 000 new DStv viewers to the pot, with Afrikaans-speaking contributing just over 137 000. Just over 395 000 Nguni-speaking adults are new to the DStv fold, with an additional 412 000 Sotho-speaking adults.
In a TV environment, which is undergoing such change, Welch urges the industry to apply logic when using historical data to predict a future figure, as is the case in TV planning. “Take into account the universe changes and make allowances for viewer shifts due to changes in channels' programming,” she says.
“Planners should apply their own knowledge and logic to smooth out differences between the source data and their projections, down-weighting current data as needed to allow for the universe change and making adjustments for the influence of sports events, seasonal fluctuations and holiday periods on viewing behaviour.”
To measure TV accurately, SAARF needs to know how many TVs and M-Net and DStv decoders people have, information, which is sourced from AMPS. While people are continuously buying new TV equipment, the universe can only be updated every six months after AMPS is released.
It has been some months since the TAMS universe was updated to the weights of AMPS 2008A, reflecting the changes picked up in the TV-viewing arena. Updating the universe ensures that the data remains up-to-date with changes happening in the TV arena, brought about by the constant addition of new households to the TV-viewing population and the inexorable move to pay TV.
The latest universe update however, was a significantly large one, because SAARF had been asked by the TAMS Council to delay the usual six-monthly update while the TV stakeholders discussed certain TV questions on AMPS.
It would be a further nine months before SAARF was given the go-ahead to update the TAMS universe to the AMPS 2008A weights. (Due to this delay, the next TAMS universe update due in January 2010 will skip AMPS 2008B and use AMPS 2009A's weights.)
