Baby product sales boom despite lower SA birth rates
Why this growth? Parents have always been price-conscious, after all.
What has changed in today’s landscape is how they balance price against risk, because baby product purchases carry consequences.
“If a product does not work, the cost is not just financial, it is one of discomfort, anxiety and lost sleep,” explains Caroline Short, research lead at Trade Intelligence. It is this reality that reshapes how parents define value and how they behave in store.
Price is central because money is tight
Like so many other FMCG categories, financial pressure steers almost every baby category purchase in South Africa. Weak disposable income growth and reliance on child grants have normalised value-seeking behaviour.
“Price is a constant filter,” continues Short. “Parents actively plan around promotions, buy in bulk when they have the cash, join formal and informal buying groups, and increasingly turn to private label products.” These days, parents expect multi-buy deals, and pack size is chosen based on price per unit, not shelf price.
But cheap is not the same as value
While parents will trade across brands, they are far less willing to compromise on perceived safety, efficacy or suitability for their baby. This is why baby food remains resilient despite early weaning pressure, why disposable nappies continue to dominate, and why baby personal care keeps growing even as shoppers trade down.
“In the personal care category specifically, we see how parents will trade down on brand but not on gentleness,” says Short.
Clean-label cues, dermatological testing and sensitive-skin claims still protect share and justify higher prices for those who can afford them.
In nappies, parents calculate cost per nappy, and brand loyalty has weakened as retailer brands improve in quality and undercut national brands.
Indeed, Trade Intelligence shopper research conducted in late 2025 indicated that 80-90% of baby category shoppers regularly buy private label baby food, toiletries and nappies. Private label is creating a dramatic structural shift in brand power, growing rapidly because it is affordable, familiar and reliable enough.
“In many cases, shoppers no longer perceive these products as ‘private label’, and that’s if they even realised they were private labels in the first place. They are simply trusted options at a better price,” continues Short.
Formula reveals the tension
Infant formula illustrates rather interesting dynamics.
The category is tightly regulated: no advertising, no promotions, no discounts and no private label. And yet, formula is still highly price sensitive. Parents focus on how far they can stretch their rand, adjusting purchases to available cash.
How does this play out in practical terms? Lower-income households buy smaller packs more frequently; higher-income households buy the largest pack they can afford. And once a formula works, switching feels risky, both emotionally and practically.
Here, availability becomes inseparable from price. “Stock availability is the single biggest driver of retailer choice in infant formula,” warns Short. “Out-of-stocks force parents into decisions they don’t want to make, so they will travel or pay more to avoid the risk of buying a formula that doesn’t agree with their baby.”
If the formula is out of stock just one time too many, this can result in permanent retailer switching.
Baby food sits between affordability and aspiration
Baby food continues to grow, but along two tracks.
For most households, affordability governs behaviour: bulk buying, promotions and private label dominate. Alongside this, a smaller but influential group of parents is drawn to clean-label, organic and functional products.
These premium ranges do not drive most volume, but they shape how parents see the category and the retailer behind it. Educational messaging, ingredient clarity and age-stage navigation outperform playful branding.
Growth lives in the trade-off
The baby FMCG market is growing, but it is particular.
“Parents are price sensitive,” concludes Short. “They are value-driven, but risk-averse. They will trade down, but only to a point, and they will switch brands, as long as they deliver.”
Sustainable growth in baby FMCG comes from understanding these trade-offs and designing prices, packs, ranges and experiences that respect them.