Global food prices hold steady in August, says FAO
The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of a basket of widely-traded food commodities, averaged 130.1 points – virtually unchanged from July’s revised level of 130.0 points, and 6.9% higher than a year ago.
Commodity trends
The vegetable oil price index rose 1.4%, its highest in over three years, with palm, sunflower and rapeseed oil quotations increasing partly due to Indonesia’s plan to expand its biodiesel mandate. In contrast, global soy oil prices edged lower on expectations of ample supplies.
The cereal price index declined by 0.8%. Wheat prices dropped on larger harvests in the EU and Russia, while maize prices rose on higher demand for feed and ethanol in the US. Rice prices eased, pressured by lower Indica quotations amid stiff competition among exporters.
The meat price index increased by 0.6%, reaching a record high. Bovine meat led the rise, supported by strong demand from the US and China. Ovine prices also increased, while pig meat stayed stable and poultry declined on abundant supply.
The dairy price index fell 1.3% as butter, cheese and whole milk powder prices weakened due to lower demand from Asian markets.
The sugar price index inched up 0.2% following five months of declines, with concerns over Brazil’s output and stronger global demand offset by larger expected crops in India and Thailand.
Record cereal production forecast
FAO’s updated forecast pegs global cereal output in 2025 at 2.96 billion tonnes – a record high, up 3.5% year-on-year.
• Coarse grains: Production is expected to rise 5.9% to 1.6 billion tonnes, driven by higher maize output in Brazil and the US and a notable rise in sorghum.
• Wheat: Forecast at 804.9 million tonnes, 0.8% above last year, with stronger yields in the EU but weaker prospects in China.
• Rice: Output seen growing 1% to 555.5 million tonnes, with gains in Indonesia, India, Brazil, China and Bangladesh offsetting declines in Madagascar, Nepal, the US and Thailand.
Utilisation, stocks and trade
Global cereal utilisation is forecast to grow 1.6% to 2.92 billion tonnes, supported by increased use of maize and wheat for feed.
World cereal stocks are projected to expand 3.7% to a record 898.7 million tonnes by the end of 2026. This would push the global stock-to-use ratio to 30.6%, nearly a percentage point above last year, suggesting ample supplies.
International cereal trade in 2025/26 is forecast to grow 1.4% to 493.4 million tonnes, supported by strong demand for wheat from China, Pakistan, Syria and Türkiye, as well as higher rice imports by Bangladesh, Ghana and Guinea-Bissau.
Fertiliser concerns
In its latest Market Monitor, FAO’s Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) noted rising nitrogen fertiliser prices.
The report warned that fertilizer affordability is declining relative to crop prices, which could affect application rates and crop yields in some regions.