South Africa's tourism recovery: Beyond the numbers
We're just 33,000 visitors (1%) short of our 2019 figures, but this apparent success masks deeper structural challenges that demand immediate attention.
The competitive reality check
Globally, international tourism returned to 2019 levels in 2024, experiencing over 12% growth. Meanwhile, South Africa's recovery crawled forward at just 5.1%, leaving us 13% behind our 2019 arrivals.
More troubling still, we've ceded ground to our African competitors. Kenya returned to 2019 levels in 2023, Tanzania exceeded them in 2022 with 18% growth in 2024, and Morocco, now Africa's leading destination with 17.4 million arrivals in 2024, achieved 20% growth.
In 2016, Morocco had 10.3 million arrivals, South Africa 10 million, and Tunisia just 5.7 million. Today, Morocco leads with 17.4 million, Tunisia holds second place with 10.3 million, and South Africa ranks third.
The question that should keep every tourism stakeholder awake: why has our industry failed to keep pace?
The overseas market crisis
The most concerning trend lies in our overseas tourism performance, the jewel in tourism's economic crown due to high per-visitor spending.
With just 1.3 million overseas arrivals in the first seven months of 2025, we're tracking 10% behind 2019 levels and 12% behind 2018 figures.
This translates to stark economic losses.
The 183,000 "lost" overseas visitors have cost South Africa approximately R4.3bn in direct foreign spending for the first seven months of 2025 alone.
For the full year 2024, the shortfall in overseas visitors resulted in a staggering R13.3bn loss in foreign direct expenditure, export earnings lost to our economy when we need them most.
Key overseas markets paint a mixed picture:
• China remains catastrophic: Only 23,600 Chinese tourists arrived in the first seven months of 2025, representing just 44% of 2019 levels, despite the February 2025 introduction of the Trusted Tour Operator Scheme
• India shows alarming decline: Still 27% behind 2019 levels with a 9% drop compared to 2024
• European markets struggle: France at 79% of 2019 levels, Germany at 87%, Italy reaching 90%
• USA shows fatigue: Only 3% growth year-on-year despite being our largest source market
African market success and opportunity
The African market provides our brightest spot. For January to July 2025, we welcomed 4.55 million African visitors,118,000 more than 2019 and exceeding that year by 3%. This success story offers crucial lessons:
Visa policy works: Ghana's visitor numbers doubled 2019 levels in 2024 after mutual visa requirement removal, with visitors spending an average R24,000 per person per trip. Kenyan arrivals exceeded 2019 levels by 58% in 2024, averaging R18,500 per person.
Air access matters: African air arrivals for the first seven months of 2025 were 16% above 2019 levels, driven by improved connectivity.
However, significant opportunities remain untapped. Key African markets lag considerably: Angola (-40% vs 2019), Nigeria (-39%), Egypt (-11%), and Uganda (-9%).
Cape Town's strategic victory
The Cape Town Air Access Strategy demonstrates what focused, strategic intervention can achieve. Cape Town International Airport's overseas air arrivals exceeded 2019 levels by 21% in the first seven months of 2025, while OR Tambo International Airport remained 21% behind 2019 figures.
This success comes with a caveat: we've shifted rather than increased total international arrivals. The strategy worked for Cape Town but highlighted systemic challenges in growing the overall market.
Hotel performance reflects market realities
Hotel performance data reveals the industry's structural transformation:
5-star hotels: Despite a slight occupancy decline from 64% to 62% year-on-year, they remain the strongest performers. Cape Town 5-star properties achieved average room rates 41% ahead of 2019 levels in real terms, with RevPAR increasing from R2,100 (2019) to R4,000 (2025). However, Sandton's 5-star market struggles with just R1,100 RevPAR and rates down 20% in real terms compared to 2019.
4-star hotels: Cape Town outperforms with 40% real growth in average room rates over 2019, while KwaZulu-Natal properties remain 14% behind 2019 levels in real terms despite improved occupancy.
3-star hotels: Face the greatest challenges outside Cape Town, with Sandton experiencing 45% real RevPAR decline compared to 2019 and KZN showing a 17% real decline.
Strategic imperatives for recovery
The data reveals that tourism's traditional model has fundamentally changed. Competition has intensified from previously unrecognised destinations, and markets are increasingly defined by lifestyle and life stage rather than geography. South Africa's tourism infrastructure appears inadequately structured for these realities.
Immediate actions required:
1. Brand South Africa campaign: We need a comprehensive national campaign to improve South Africa's global image, addressing geopolitical perceptions that deter both investment and tourism.
2. Air access development fund: Establish an economy-wide approach to improving connectivity, particularly to underserved, high-potential regional and overseas markets.
3. Crime, grime, and decay: Implement meaningful public-private-community partnerships, including city improvement districts, to address urban decay that drives away domestic and international visitors.
4. Economic growth focus: Prioritise overall economic development to drive business tourism from domestic, regional, and overseas markets.
5. Welcoming environment: Create systematic approaches to ensure South Africa's naturally welcoming culture is experienced consistently across the country.
6. Product innovation: Develop unique tourism products offering diverse experiences while ensuring delivery through skilled, passionate workforces.
The fundamental shift required
The tourism sector must recognise that it operates within a broader economy. Challenges require economy-wide solutions supported by all economic sectors. Tourism cannot recover in isolation from manufacturing weakness, energy constraints, or governance challenges.
Most critically, we must position tourism at our economy's centre, recognising its unique capacity to create employment opportunities across skill levels. The sector's multiplier effect on job creation, foreign exchange earnings, and regional development makes it indispensable to South Africa's economic recovery.
The statistics paint a clear picture: while competitors surge ahead, South Africa's tourism recovery remains frustratingly incomplete. The African market's success and Cape Town's air access achievements prove that strategic, coordinated interventions work. Now we need the political will, private sector commitment, and public support to scale these successes nationally.
The choice is clear: adapt our strategies to new market realities and competitive dynamics, or watch other destinations claim the growth that should be ours.